More Predictions for 2011

January 20th, 2011 23:32

Here are my 5 the predictions for the year:-

Your next laptop will be a tablet. (I know minewill be anyway.) As our data and applications move more and more into “the cloud,” the need to carry around heavy, power sucking laptops will diminish. People who travel quite a bit will be the first to embrace these new devices, as well as casual home users who need little more than to browse the web, watch videos, and create emails or basic documents. I also think the high-cost, limited-functionality of the iPad will give way to more robust tablet operating systems from the likes of Android and Windows.

The Kinect from Microsoft will emerge as a very disruptive and continually evolving technology. (Breakthrough of the decade?) This “controller-free” (CF) technology is already showing huge promise outside of the gaming world where it was introduced to the consumer market. Very similar to the way characters used computers in the movie, "Minority Report", the Kinect (and possibly other CF device products from companies like Omek) will enable us to move away from the keyboard and closer to working, communicating, and creating by using our full range of body movements and physical expressions. Imagine being able to use sign language with a computer to issue commands and create documents, or creating a musical masterpiece with the fluidity and dexterity of your arms and legs. We think you could see the first musical performance created with a Kinect this year!

Smarter TVs and the demise of 3D TV sets. The numbers are already starting to show a weakness in the demand for 3D TV. And if you’re like us, you’re set in the TV department for a while to come, so the growth in this area may not be as robust as one would hope. So, manufacturers are shifting their focus to bring more smart-phone/app like technologies to the TV itself. This will allow TV manufacturers to participate in new forms of app store revenue, as well as create new partnerships around interactive programming and advertising/e-commerce. Too bad they weren't on this a year or two ago.

Social Gaming on mobile devices will get us out of the house!!! The games will also become less dependent on single platforms like Facebook and allow people to connect through email addresses, cell phone numbers, and other common platforms. This could be the year when a new type of mobile social game hits big; one that is less focused on the screen of the device, and more on getting us out the front door and to interact with the outside world. Think about a game that could combine the following elements: GPS, augmented reality, video, tag, a scavenger hunt, a rich interactive storyline, etc. Put it all together in a fun and creative way, and it would be a game-changing game!

Of course, we can’t leave out Facebook. Recently they received $50bn valuation. Fine. But currently, their main asset is people, and people are fickle. (Remember MySpace?) Also, unlike Google, they have not yet made themselves a "necessary" component in the way we work and use computers on a daily basis (office productivity suites, cloud storage, search, operating systems, mobile and media platforms, etc.). Most of us could stop using Facebook today with little consequence, which is probably the truer litmus test. We predict Facebook will have a significantly lower and more realistic valuation by the year’s end.

About the Author

Jeremy Reid, President has written 4 stories on this site.