Social News and Google's Real Competition

Google already owns 70+ percent of the global search market. What that means is that most of the planet’s Internet users use Google to find things on the Internet. The rest of the search use is split up between Yahoo and Bing. Google is now moving deep into mobile search territory, and with the seemingly endless march of the 'Droids, Google looks to control that market too. Internet search is driven by short-term interest and that is driven by news. What is happening in Hollywood or politics drives most of the search activity, as people look for more information on whatever subject is hot.

The Face (book) of the Internet

The two largest properties on the Internet are Google and Facebook. Social networking is a little more recent than search as a major Internet activity, but it has become a large percentage of Internet traffic for most users and is dominating bandwidth as most broadband internet providers can attest too. Google has had little real competition, until now that is and recently, LinkedIn and Facebook have announced news aggregation services. This may not seem like much, but it could represent a major change in the face of the Internet.

Witness Google's recent “Farmer Algorithm” update that was intended to purify its search results. This must have been done with Facebook in mind, as the rise of Social News is a direct threat to the Google user base. What if more people went to Facebook, LinkedIn, or another social networking site to find out what was happening in the world? That would leave Google vulnerable to lose a big percentage of its search market activities and that would mean a drop in revenue potential. The danger here is that people are expressing dissatisfaction with the information that they get. Search for anything, news related or product related on Google and you find yourself wading through pages of results seeking what you are actually looking for. If, however, you seek the same information from a circle of friends or like-minded individuals, you are more likely to get what you are looking for directly without having to search through the search results.

The Walled Garden

Beyond the major social networking sites, others such as Aardvark and Quora are specializing in answers, called social answers. What is the best hotel near the civic center? Ask that question of Google, and there is no telling the results that Google might return. Alternatively, ask the question of a social networking site of someone who has just gotten back from a conference there, and you will get real information. The threat to Google is obvious and the company is not standing still. The question is, can Google meet the threat?

There are rumors of something called Google Circles, which will create circles of people based on who knows who in a particular circle and while this information is yet unconfirmed, something like it must be in the works, as Google is already losing ground to the new social threat and rumors abound from a trusted source. Even Facebook is trying to hold on to user share as the other, specialty sites, are gaining ground. Social news could change the face of the Internet by redirecting people to news that is popular with people that they deem like-minded rather than wading through countless news sites to find what they want.

The Future “Interweb”

What all this creates is an interesting and potentially disturbing future image of the Internet. As the web grows ever-larger, most of it remains beyond the reach of most of the people. If it is not on page one of the SERP (search engine results page), it is unlikely to be found. Specific information and news are the bulk of what drives people to look for anything on the Internet, and the most used sites are shrinking in number.

The new trend leads to “Walled Gardens” of people that share information between themselves and sites that specialize in specific types of information, also based on circles of association. Google may ultimately be forced to push the other direction becoming the last bastion of access to the open Internet, or it may be forced to start dicing the Internet up into bit sized chunks as well.

Either way, social news, networking and information are a major threat to the dominance that Google has enjoyed lo these many years and they must react. Imagine an Internet controlled by just a few major companies with no control except their own best interest. “Oh, Net Neutrality! We hardly knew ye!”